Goosing the Polls

First, a touch of humility. No one can predict what will happen in a Presidential election year with any precision, because it is by definition that which defines an electorate. Only through this four year process can we know where an electorate is, demographically, politically, and emotionally at a given point in time. The best we can do is to look through a glass, darkly, and correlate the dynamis of the electorates from past election cycles with the various tea leaves and witch doctor bones of the modern era, polls and bi-elections. And place a guess.

But it's still fun to do, so enough with the humility and herewith some hubris.

Watching the Democrats watching polls is like watching domestic geese try to fly. They fluff and pump their wings, trying vainly to capture enough air to lift their heavy torsos up, up, into the sky. Faster and faster they flap, effort doubles exertion as they push all into a hop-hop run, but nothing happens; they continue earthbound, failing to clear even a two foot fence.

The air the pollsters seek to capture are positive poll numbers for the President, and any puff of good news makes them honk and hiss into print with analyses of Presidential inevitability. At the beginning of this year, they seized on national polls showing Obama leading. Then as the air went out of those polls, they focused on polls of the Battleground States. Then as those polls tightened, they turned their critical talents in praise of early voting and the President's so-called ground game.Ground game is right; the Democrat professionals are game, but still firmly stuck in the mud and dirt of the earth.

The principal problem they face is that the President has never, ever been above 50% in any of the polls. I don't mean to get too technical here, but my understanding of our system is that you need 50.1% to win. And it is clear after a year of polling that 50.1% and more of the electorate are not going to be voting for this President. When election day comes, there is only one other candidate to vote for, and that is where these voters will turn.

The penultimate problem the Dem's face was ably pointed out by my compatriot: President Obama's approval ratings among independent voters have been tanking all year. My math indicates that Republicans + Independents = electoral victory.

The third problem is historical and traditional patterns going back over 30 years: Republicans always win the vote on election day. When Democrats win, it is because of early voting advantages gained before election day, such as occurred in 2008.  Mitt Romney has put a severe crimp in the argument that Obama will amass an overwhelming lead in early voting due to his much vaunted ground game. As befits a man trained to be a thorough, detail oriented executive, the Romney campaign has organized an early voter turnout of his forces unprecedented in Republican annals. As a result, the Democrats are only maintaining a modest lead in early voting, leaving election day, a Republican strength, to decide the matter. 

Finally, it is a well known fact that polls always underestimate Republican strength. Take all of the polls of the last year and add 2 to 4 points to Romney's totals, and you will see that this election has been baked against the President for some time now.

The Democrat ganders can flail away all they like, but there is simply no wind beneath their wings. It will be Romney/Ryan with at least 55% of the vote, and a massive, embarrassing loss for the Democrats come November 6th.